Who governs Victoria
Labor has governed Victoria since 2014 and is seeking a fourth straight term under Ben Carroll, premier since July 28. Jess Wilson's Liberal-National Coalition needs 16 more seats to reach the 45 for a majority. One Nation, which won 0.2% of the vote in 2022, polls between 20% and 25% in every survey since August.
Two-party preferred vote
Voting is preferential: voters number the candidates, and the votes of those eliminated flow to the next preferences. The two-party preferred vote shows the Labor-Coalition contest after that redistribution. Average of the latest poll from each pollster in the last 45 days.
Primary vote
Average of the latest poll from each pollster in the last 45 days. In 2022: Labor 37.0%, Coalition 34.4%, Greens 11.5%, One Nation 0.2%.
We do not project seats for Victoria yet. With One Nation above 20%, many districts become three-way contests, and a uniform swing on the 2022 result stops working.
The Assembly today
88 seats; a majority takes 45. Composition as of 24/09/2026, per the Assembly Hansard. The Brunswick vacancy, left by the death of Tim Read (Greens), gets no by-election because the general election comes first.
- Greens2
- Labor54
- Independents2
- Vacant1
- Liberals20
- Nationals9
Polls
Every poll since August checked against the original source; the marked ones enter the average. Figures with * were checked only with the AAP news agency, because the outlet is paywalled. The Online Research Unit poll commissioned by the Greens, partisan and with no figures checked, is left out.
| Pollster | Outlet | Fieldwork | ALP | Coal. | GRN | ONP | 2PP (ALP–Coal.) | In average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Morgan | – | 29/10 | 22.5 | 29.5 | 12.5 | 22 | 44–56 | ● |
| Newspoll (Pyxis) | The Australian | 26/10 | 24* | 33* | 20* | 45*–55* | ● | |
| Resolve Strategic (Resolve Political Monitor) | The Age / Sydney Morning Herald (Nine) | 10/10 | 25 | 28 | 15 | 23 | ● | |
| Roy Morgan | – | 9/10 | 22.5 | 26 | 14 | 25 | 45–55 | |
| Freshwater Strategy | Herald Sun | 28/09 | 24 | 29 | 14 | 22 | 47–53 | ● |
| DemosAU | PremierNational | 20/09 | 25 | 30 | 14 | 20 | 48–52 | ● |
| Resolve Strategic (Resolve Political Monitor) | The Age / Sydney Morning Herald (Nine) | 14/09 | 25 | 28 | 12 | 23 | ||
| Resolve Strategic (Resolve Political Monitor) | The Age / Sydney Morning Herald (Nine) | 19/08 | 25 | 27 | 12 | 23 | ||
| DemosAU | PremierNational | 11/08 | 23 | 32 | 13 | 22 | 45–55 | |
| Roy Morgan | – | 7/08 | 26 | 26 | 12.5 | 23.5 | 49–51 | |
| Freshwater Strategy | Herald Sun | 3/08 | 25 | 30 | 14 | 22 | 48–52 | |
| RedBridge Group / Accent Research | Australian Financial Review | 1/08 | 23 | 30 | 22 | |||
| YouGov (MRP) | Common Threads | 10/07 | 23 | 26 | 13 | 24 | 46.2–53.8 |
How it works
Each of the 88 districts elects one member by preferential voting. The Legislative Council, the upper house, has 40 seats elected in 8 regions by proportional voting. Voting is compulsory, and early voting runs from Nov 18 to 27.
Results
Polls close at 6 PM on Saturday, Nov 28, in Melbourne: 2 AM in Washington, DC. The Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) publishes each district's results through the night.
Data checked on 02/11/2026. Polls: each pollster, linked. 2022 results, calendar and rules: VEC. Composition: Legislative Assembly Hansard.