Brazil · October 25, 2026
The runoff and election night
In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro won more votes than Lula (47.03% to 45.16% of valid votes). In the runoff, Lula won by 4,430,191 votes.
51.79%
Lula (PT)
64,256,232 votes
48.21%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)
59,826,041 votes
19.22%
abstention
4,153,801 blank and void ballots
Our projection against the official count
The official count had Lula below 50% for much of the night and only flipped for good with 47.6% of precincts counted. Our projection, which compares each municipality with itself in the first round, had Lula ahead from 1.7% and never switched sides. At 59%, it was within 0.1 point of the final result and stayed there.
Capi projection (90% band)Official count
Moment by moment
| Time | Precincts | Lula projection | Lula in the count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19:13 | 1.7% | 50.84% | 52.10% |
| 19:38 | 10.0% | 51.52% | 50.48% |
| 19:57 | 20.3% | 51.43% | 49.56% |
| 20:08 | 30.2% | 51.36% | 49.53% |
| 20:17 | 39.8% | 51.41% | 49.78% |
| 20:24 | 47.6% | 51.63% | 50.01% |
| 20:34 | 59.1% | 51.70% | 50.50% |
| 20:48 | 75.2% | 51.81% | 51.09% |
| 21:01 | 89.7% | 51.86% | 51.56% |
| 23:22 | 100.0% | 51.79% | 51.79% |
Source: TSE (official results). The projection is ours and was logged live, minute by minute, at djancord.com.br/apuracao2t. Full dashboard →