Spain · November 29, 2026

General election

All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies are up, and an absolute majority is 176. The forecast turns the polling average into seats province by province, using the D'Hondt method, and simulates possible polling errors.

197

seats for PP + Vox (median)

182 to 212 in 90% of simulations

99%

chance that PP + Vox reach 176 or more

the PP alone never reaches 176

84%

chance the PP wins the most votes

chance Vox exceeds 60 seats: 87%

149

seats for the bloc that elected Sánchez in 2023 (median)

chance of reaching 176: 0.3%

The projected Congress

Median for each party across simulations. The medians add up to 347; the remaining seats are grey.

PP127
PSOE108
Vox70
Frente Amplio9
ERC8
EH Bildu7
Junts5
PNV4
Aliança Catalana3
Adelante Andalucía2
BNG2
Coalición Canaria1
UPN1
undecided3

The blocs

PP + Vox · 197

2023 bloc · 149

majority 176

PP + Vox: 197others: 42023 bloc: 149

The 2023 bloc groups the parties that voted for Sánchez's investiture: PSOE, Frente Amplio, Podemos, ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG and Coalición Canaria. Others: UPN, Aliança Catalana and Se Acabó La Fiesta.

Seats by party

Median and 90% interval of the simulations. Medians do not add up to exactly 350. Frente Amplio includes the Frente Valenciana (formerly Compromís).

127 110–145

PSOE

108 92–125

Vox

70 55–85

Frente Amplio

9 4–18

ERC

8 7–12

EH Bildu

7 5–8

Junts

5 4–8

PNV

4 3–6

Aliança Catalana

3 0–6

Adelante Andalucía

2 0–4

BNG

2 2–3

Podemos

0 0–2

Coalición Canaria

1 1–1

UPN

1 0–1

Se Acabó La Fiesta

0 0–1

Polling average

Estimated vote share, corrected for each pollster's house effect. Polls commissioned by parties are excluded.

30.7%

PSOE

26.9%

Vox

19.5%

Frente Amplio

6.8%

ERC

2.2%

Podemos

2.2%

Se Acabó La Fiesta

1.8%

Junts

1.4%

EH Bildu

1.3%

Adelante Andalucía

1.3%

Aliança Catalana

1.0%

PNV

0.9%

BNG

0.9%

The polling average over time

Estimated vote share since July, corrected for each pollster's house effect.

Latest polls

Pollster	Fieldwork	Sample	PP	PSOE	Vox	FA	Podemos
Target Point El Debate	28/10–30/10	1,024	31.8	25.5	19.9	6.6	2.4
EM-Analytics Electomanía	28/10–30/10	1,527	31.5	25.8	19.2	6.2	1.7
NC Report La Razón	26/10–29/10	1,000	33.0	25.6	19.3	6.9	2.4
Sondaxe La Voz de Galicia	26/10–28/10	1,200	29.2	26.9	19.2	7.2	2.0
Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli	22/10–28/10	1,000	32.4	26.4	19.9	5.4	2.2
The Objective	27/10	1,500	28.1	29.6	20.2	6.2	1.9
NC Report La Razón	22/10–24/10	1,000	33.1	25.8	19.0	6.6	2.6
Winston Artículo14	21/10–23/10	1,200	29.4	27.1	19.2	5.6
EM-Analytics Electomanía	17/10–23/10	4,309	30.9	26.7	19.0	5.8	1.7
Ateneo del Dato elDiario.es	20/10–22/10	2,000	31.1	27.6	19.8	6.8	2.7

Spanish electoral law (LOREG, art. 69.7) bans publishing polls in the five days before the vote. From November 24 to 28 this page is frozen.

Polls: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA) and the pollsters cited; 2023 results: Interior Ministry. Average as of 02/11/2026. Full dashboard →