The midterm elections
Americans elect 35 of the 100 Senate seats, all 435 House seats and 36 governors. Democrats need 51 senators, because Vice President J. D. Vance breaks a 50-50 tie, and 218 representatives.
The projected Senate
Median of the 10,000 simulations, adding the 65 seats not up to the 35 contested.
- Democrats and independents54
- Republicans46
Senate: 10,000 simulations
Each bar is the chance that Democrats and independents end up with that many seats. Blue: Democratic majority (51 or more). Red: Republican control.
What if the polls are wrong?
| Scenario | D chance | D median |
|---|---|---|
| Base: top pollsters, bias-corrected | 83% | 54 |
| Without bias correction | 76% | 53 |
| A 2020-sized miss: 4 points toward Republicans | 42% | 50 |
The Senate races
From closest to least close. The average uses the five top pollsters over the last 45 days; without them, all pollsters; with no polls, the consensus rating.
| State | Candidates | Average | Rater consensus | Chance (Capi) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana | Jamie Davis (D) Julia Letlow (R) | tie all pollsters | Likely R | D 50% |
| South Carolina | Annie Andrews (D) Darline Graham (R) | tie 1 top pollster | Lean R | D 51% |
| Iowa | Josh Turek (D) Ashley Hinson (R) | D+1.6 5 top pollsters | Toss-up | D 62% |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola (D) Dan S. Sullivan (R) | D+2.0 1 top pollster | Toss-up | D 63% |
| Mississippi | Scott Colom (D) Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | R+3.0 all pollsters | Likely R | R 67% |
| Maine | Troy Jackson (D) Susan Collins (R) | D+2.5 4 top pollsters | Tilt D | D 68% |
| Texas | James Talarico (D) Ken Paxton (R) | D+2.5 4 top pollsters | Toss-up | D 69% |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton (D) Roger Marshall (R) | D+4.0 2 top pollsters | Toss-up | D 77% |
| Ohio (special) | Sherrod Brown (D) Jon Husted (R) | D+4.2 4 top pollsters | Toss-up | D 80% |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas (D) John E. Sununu (R) | D+5.0 1 top pollster | Likely D | D 81% |
| Florida (special) | Angie Nixon (D) Ashley Moody (R) | R+6.0 1 top pollster | Likely R | R 85% |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) Mike Rogers (R) | D+5.2 4 top pollsters | Lean D | D 85% |
| Nebraska | Dan Osborn (I) Pete Ricketts (R) | R+6.0 1 top pollster | Lean R | R 85% |
| Montana | Seth Bodnar (I) Kurt Alme (R) | R+8.7 all pollsters | Safe R | R 90% |
| South Dakota | Brian Bengs (I) Mike Rounds (R) | R+8.0 1 top pollster | Safe R | R 92% |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) Mike Collins (R) | D+9.4 all pollsters | Likely D | D 92% |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper (D) Michael Whatley (R) | D+10.7 all pollsters | Likely D | D 94% |
Seguras para os democratas: Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.Seguras para los demócratas: Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.Safe for Democrats: Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia. Seguras para os republicanos: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming.Seguras para los republicanos: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming.Safe for Republicans: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming. Not up in 2026: 34 Democratic and independent seats and 31 Republican seats.
House: 10,000 simulations
Each bar is the chance that Democrats end up with that many seats. Blue: 218 or more.
What if the polls are wrong?
| Scenario | D chance | D median |
|---|---|---|
| Base: top pollsters, bias-corrected | 98% | 245 |
| Aggregator average | 93% | 237 |
| Without bias correction | 96% | 241 |
| A 2020-sized miss: 4 points toward Republicans | 81% | 228 |
The 15 closest districts
| District | Incumbent | PVI | Rater consensus | Chance (Capi) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-2 | Shomari Figures (D) | R+7 | Lean R | R 50% |
| MO-2 | Ann Wagner (R) | R+4 | Tilt R | D 50% |
| OH-10 | Mike Turner (R) | R+4 | Lean R | R 50% |
| PA-8 | Rob Bresnahan (R) | R+4 | Lean D | D 50% |
| IA-1 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | R+4 | Lean D | R 51% |
| NY-1 | Nick LaLota (R) | R+4 | Likely R | D 51% |
| FL-7 | Cory Mills (R) open seat | R+5 | Lean R | D 55% |
| MT-1 | Ryan Zinke (R) open seat | R+5 | Toss-up | D 55% |
| SC-1 | Nancy Mace (R) open seat | R+6 | Lean R | R 56% |
| FL-16 | Vern Buchanan (R) open seat | R+6 | Likely R | R 56% |
| NC-11 | Chuck Edwards (R) open seat | R+5 | Lean D | D 56% |
| OH-7 | Max Miller (R) | R+5 | Toss-up | R 60% |
| CO-5 | Jeff Crank (R) | R+5 | Toss-up | R 61% |
| FL-4 | Aaron Bean (R) | R+5 | Safe R | R 61% |
| MI-4 | Bill Huizenga (R) | R+3 | Toss-up | D 61% |
Governors
Republicans currently hold 26 governorships and Democrats 24. Capi has no governor model yet: the table shows the median rating in the most open races.
| State | Candidates | Incumbent | Rater consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia open seat | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) Rick Jackson (R) | R | Toss-up |
| Nevada | Aaron Ford (D) Joe Lombardo (R) | R | Toss-up |
| Alaska open seat | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) Dave Bronson, Treg Taylor, Bernadette Wilson (R) | R | Lean D |
| Florida open seat | David Jolly (D) Byron Donalds (R) | R | Lean R |
| Iowa open seat | Rob Sand (D) Zach Lahn (R) | R | Lean D |
| Kansas open seat | Cindy Holscher (D) Ty Masterson (R) | D | Lean R |
| Michigan open seat | Jocelyn Benson (D) John James (R) | D | Lean D |
| Ohio open seat | Amy Acton (D) Vivek Ramaswamy (R) | R | Lean D |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek (D) Christine Drazan (R) | D | Lean D |
| Texas | Gina Hinojosa (D) Greg Abbott (R) | R | Lean R |
| Wisconsin open seat | David Crowley (D) Tom Tiffany (R) | D | Lean D |
Prováveis, mas não seguras: Arizona (D), Nebraska (R), New Hampshire (R), Oklahoma (R), Vermont (R).Probables, pero no seguras: Arizona (D), Nebraska (R), New Hampshire (R), Oklahoma (R), Vermont (R).Likely, but not safe: Arizona (D), Nebraska (R), New Hampshire (R), Oklahoma (R), Vermont (R).
Early vote
So far 54.5 million Americans have voted by mail or in person. At the same point in 2022 it was 40.1 million, and by the end of 2022 early voting, 45.9 million.
In the 27 states that report party registration: Democrats 43%, Republicans 32%, unaffiliated or other 25% (our calculation).
Registration shows who turned out. The vote itself only appears in the count, and in our test with past elections early voting alone did not predict the result.
Source: University of Florida Election Lab (Michael McDonald), CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license, numbers reproduced unchanged; source update: 01/11 22:00 (Eastern time). Comparisons and percentages: our calculation.
When the polls close
When most polls close in each state, on the night of November 3.
| US Eastern | Brasília | Madrid | States | Senate races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 (3/11) | 20:00 (3/11) | 00:00 (4/11) | KY | |
| 19:00 (3/11) | 21:00 (3/11) | 01:00 (4/11) | FL GA NH SC VA VT | FL, GA, NH, SC |
| 19:30 (3/11) | 21:30 (3/11) | 01:30 (4/11) | NC OH WV | NC, OH |
| 20:00 (3/11) | 22:00 (3/11) | 02:00 (4/11) | AL CT DE IL KS MA MD ME MI MS NJ OK PA RI SD TN TX | KS, ME, MI, MS, TX |
| 20:30 (3/11) | 22:30 (3/11) | 02:30 (4/11) | AR | |
| 21:00 (3/11) | 23:00 (3/11) | 03:00 (4/11) | AZ CO IA LA MN NE NM NY WI WY | IA, MN, NE |
| 22:00 (3/11) | 00:00 (4/11) | 04:00 (4/11) | ID MT NV | MT |
| 23:00 (3/11) | 01:00 (4/11) | 05:00 (4/11) | CA OR | |
| 00:00 (4/11) | 02:00 (4/11) | 06:00 (4/11) | AK HI | AK |
Polls: top pollsters per the Silver Bulletin ranking; ratings: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA), which compiles Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and others. Forecast generated 02/11/2026 11:49 (Madrid time).