New Zealand · Nov 7 · Parliament

Who governs New Zealand

Average of polls checked against the original source and 20,000 simulations of the MMP system: 120 seats, a 5% party-vote threshold or one electorate win.

Left bloc majority

Labour + Greens + Te Pāti Māori

57%

Opportunity decides

neither bloc reaches a majority without it

33%

Right bloc majority

National + ACT + NZ First, the current government

19%

Opportunity below 5%

and out of Parliament, with no electorate win

The blocs

Combined poll vote and seats counted in each simulation (median and 80% range). A majority takes half the seats plus one.

Left: Labour + Greens + Te Pāti Māori · 56

Right: National + ACT + NZ First · 59

majority 61

Left: Labour + Greens + Te Pāti Māori: 56Opportunity: 7Right: National + ACT + NZ First: 59

Bloc	Poll vote	Seats	Majority alone
Left: Labour + Greens + Te Pāti Māori	44.3%	56 51–61	9%
Opportunity	5.9%	7 0–9	–
Right: National + ACT + NZ First	48.6%	59 55–65	33%

Seats at the median of the simulations

A majority takes 61 of 120 seats. A party that wins more electorates than its share keeps the extra seats, and the House grows.

Greens17
Te Pāti Māori3
Labour35
Opportunity7
National34
NZ First13
ACT12

Māori electorates: Te Pāti Māori leads comfortably in Waiariki and Hauraki-Waikato and holds a lead in Te Tai Hauāuru; Tāmaki Makaurau is close. With about 1% of the party vote, almost every electorate win becomes an overhang seat.

Parties

Party	Average	Seats	Bloc
Labour	28.7%	35 31–39	left
National	27.4%	34 30–38	right
Greens	14.2%	17 15–20	left
NZ First	10.9%	13 11–16	right
ACT	10.2%	12 10–15	right
Opportunity	5.9%	7 0–9	kingmaker
Te Pāti Māori	1.4%	3 3–4	left

Polls in the average

The latest from each pollster in the last 30 days, only those checked against the original source. Wikipedia is used as an index, not as a source.

Pollster	Fieldwork	NAT	LAB	GRN	ACT	NZF	OPP	TPM
RNZ–Reid Research	26/10	24.8	30.6	14.5	10.1	9.9	7.2	1.9
1 News–Verian	25/10	28.9	27.3	14.8	12.4	10.0	6.3	0.1
The Post/Freshwater Strategy	19/10	27.6	28.7	14.3	9.0	11.8	5.4	2.0
Taxpayers' Union–Curia	05/10	28.5	28.2	13.3	9.2	12.0	4.8	1.4

Results

Polls close at 7 PM on Saturday, Nov 7, in New Zealand: 1 AM in Washington, DC. The Electoral Commission publishes preliminary results through the night.

Projection as of 2026-11-02 16:17. Polls: each pollster, linked. Rules: Electoral Act 1993.