Italy 2027: what the polls say a year out
The legislature ends on October 13, 2027, and the election must be held within 70 days; an early vote in the spring is already being discussed. A new electoral law has applied since October 24: proportional, with a 3% threshold, the prime-minister candidate named on the ballot, and a 70-seat bonus in the Chamber for the bloc with the most votes, if it has 42% in both the Chamber and the Senate. The contest pits Giorgia Meloni's centre-right (Brothers of Italy, League, Forza Italia) against the centre-left camp (PD, Five Star Movement, AVS), which has not yet picked a candidate.
A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast. This page shows the descriptive average of the polls by bloc, with no seat projection and no chance of the bonus. Each poll is shown with its dates and method.
Descriptive polling average by bloc
Sum of each bloc's parties in each published poll. Government: Brothers of Italy, Forza Italia, League, Noi Moderati and Sud chiama Nord. Opposition: PD, Five Star Movement, AVS, Italia Viva, +Europa and allies. Outside the blocs: Futuro Nazionale (Vannacci), Azione and others. The 42% line marks the law's threshold; on its own it does not show who would receive the bonus.
Who gets the bonus: one bloc only. Law 180/2026 (art. 83 of the electoral code) gives the 70 seats to the bloc with the most votes for the Chamber, provided it has at least 42% of the valid vote and that, in the Senate, the same bloc comes first, also with 42% or more. If both pass 42%, the one with more votes wins it. If the leader falls below 42% in either house, or if each bloc wins one house, there is no bonus: seats are allocated purely in proportion to the votes, with no runoff. With the bonus, the winner is capped at 220 Chamber seats, not counting those elected abroad. The same condition applies in the Senate, with a separate 35-seat bonus, shared out among the regions, and a cap of 113 seats for the bloc that receives it. Law 180/2026 was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale on October 9, 2026, and has been in force since October 24. Legal challenges seeking a review of its constitutionality have been announced, and Capivote is following them.
Capivote does not yet publish a seat projection or the chance of either bloc winning the bonus. The new law combines proportional allocation, a 42% threshold that must be met in both houses, and seat caps, and Capivote's methodology publishes figures for a system only after testing it against elections already counted. The polls measure general voting intention and do not separate the Chamber from the Senate.
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Opposition (centre-left) | Outside the blocs | Government (centre-right) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Termometro Politico | 05/11/26 | 43.9% | 14.1% | 42.0% |
| SWG | 02/11/26 | 45.0% | 11.2% | 43.8% |
| BiDiMedia | 30/10/26 | 43.0% | 15.5% | 41.5% |
| Lab21 | 30/10/26 | 42.4% | 13.9% | 43.7% |
| Istituto Piepoli | 28/10/26 | 43.5% | 13.0% | 43.5% |
| YouTrend | 06/10/26 | 43.7% | 13.4% | 40.2% |
Descriptive average of recent polls, unadjusted: not a projection. The "this week" change compares with the same average computed seven days earlier.
Government approval
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Who | Approve | Disapprove | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Termometro Politico | 05/11/26 | 2,400 online | Meloni Fiducia nel Presidente del Consiglio Giorgia Meloni | 40.1% | 59.7% | – |
| Lab21 | 30/10/26 | 1,009 mixed | Meloni Valutazione complessiva dell'operato del primo ministro Giorgia Meloni | 54.9% | 45.1% | – |
| Lab21 | 30/10/26 | 1,009 mixed | Governo Giudizio sul governo nel suo complesso | 43.6% | 56.4% | – |
| SWG | 23/10/26 | 800 online | Meloni Fiducia in Giorgia Meloni | 41.0% | – | – |
| SWG | 23/10/26 | 800 online | Governo Efficacia del Governo | 41.0% | – | +3.0 vs 22/05/26 |
| SWG | 23/10/26 | 800 online | Governo Tolta la Presidente del Consiglio Giorgia Meloni, quanto ritiene valida nel complesso la… | 32.0% | 68.0% | – |
| YouTrend | 06/10/26 | 805 online | Governo Giudizio sull'esecutivo guidato da Giorgia Meloni | 35.0% | 61.0% | +2.0 vs 22/09/26 |
Vote polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Question | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Termometro Politico | 05/11/26 | Party vote | FdI 28.1% · PD 20.7% · M5S 12.6% · FI 7.4% · FN 6.8% · AVS 6.5% |
| SWG | 02/11/26 | Party vote | FdI 29.0% · PD 20.6% · M5S 12.6% · FI 7.2% · AVS 6.2% · FN 5.8% |
| BiDiMedia | 30/10/26 | Party vote | FdI 26.6% · PD 20.6% · M5S 12.0% · FI 7.2% · FN 6.7% · AVS 6.7% |
| Lab21 | 30/10/26 | Party vote | FdI 28.4% · PD 20.1% · M5S 13.0% · FN 7.6% · FI 6.8% · Lega 5.8% |
| Istituto Piepoli | 28/10/26 | Party vote | FdI 28.0% · PD 20.0% · M5S 13.0% · FI 7.5% · AVS 6.5% · FN 6.5% · DK/spoilt 30.0% |
| YouTrend | 06/10/26 | Party vote | FdI 27.0% · PD 20.4% · M5S 13.5% · FN 7.8% · FI 7.4% · AVS 5.8% |
Only recent polls with published fieldwork and sample, from independent pollsters, are included; for each pollster the latest wave counts, and the previous one shows the trend. Polls commissioned by a party, campaign or government, or run by a pollster whose owner or director is tied to a party, are excluded.
Sources: each poll links to the original publication (the pollster's name is the link). Past results: each country's electoral body, or press reproducing the official tally. Compiled on Nov 8, 2026.