Guatemala 2027: state of the race (no projection)
Guatemala elects its president and vice president, the 160 members of Congress, municipal authorities and its deputies to the Central American Parliament in a single general election. The preliminary calendar of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal sets the first round for 27 June 2027 and a possible run-off for 22 August 2027. The dates become official only with the decree calling the election, expected in January 2027. Cut-off date: 11 November 2026.
Why there are no vote figures
The Capivote methodology publishes a polling average only when there is a sufficient base of surveys with a published and verified technical sheet. In Guatemala that base does not yet exist: much of what circulates does not identify the pollster, the fieldwork dates or the margin of error, and polling error in the country could not be measured against the official result. The page therefore shows no vote percentages, no average and no probabilities. Numbers will return once the base exists.
The picture
President Bernardo Arévalo cannot run, because the Constitution bars re-election. No candidacy has been registered. Parties have begun to put names forward, and the field remains fragmented, with a large share of voters still undecided in the published polls. Names put forward by parties, in alphabetical order: Annabella Giracca (Raíces), Armando Castillo (VIVA), Carlos Pineda (Servir), Edmond Mulet (X/Guate), Nery Ramos (Firmes), Neto Bran (CREO), Roberto Arzú (Fuerza), Sandra Torres (UNE) and Zury Ríos (Unionista). The list records intended candidacies and will change until registration.
Government approval: in the latest Datos Duros poll with a published technical sheet (fieldwork ending 08/11/26), 22% approve and 69% disapprove of Bernardo Arévalo's government. Approval is not vote intention.
Winning rule and Congress
A ticket wins in the first round with half plus one of the valid votes. Otherwise the two most-voted tickets meet in a run-off 45 to 60 days later. The term is four years. Congress has 160 deputies: 128 are elected in 23 electoral districts (the departments, with the department of Guatemala split in two) and 32 on a national list. Lists are closed, and seats are allocated by the proportional representation of minorities method, equivalent to D'Hondt. There are no polls for Congress, and Capivote does not publish a seat projection.
Polls in the final stretch
Electoral law bans the publication of polls during the 15 days before the first round and the run-off, and Capivote complies. Polls enter only with a technical sheet published and verified at the source; polls linked to a party or candidate are excluded.
Sources: the country's electoral tribunal and legislation, read at the official source, and polls with a technical sheet published by the firm itself. Compiled on Nov 11, 2026.