France 2027: what the polls say a year out
Emmanuel Macron cannot run for a third straight term. Marine Le Pen is a candidate: the July appeal upheld her conviction, but the 15 months of effective ineligibility have already been served, and she is still appealing to the Cour de cassation. In the centre, Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal compete for the same voters; on the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann, winner of the PS and Place publique primary. Each candidate needs 500 sponsorships from elected officials by March 12.
A year out, a poll measures voters' mood and how well known each name is. The average published on this page is a snapshot of the moment, and the page carries no chance of winning. Each poll is shown with its dates and method.
Le Pen leads every scenario; second place remains open (model under test)
In the scenario most tested by pollsters, with Édouard Philippe as the only centrist candidate, the polling average up to 11/11/26 gives Marine Le Pen 35%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 17%, Édouard Philippe 15% and Raphaël Glucksmann 13%. The gap between second and fourth place is smaller than the spread between polls, and the run-off place against Le Pen is still undecided.
First round, main scenario
| Candidate | Average |
|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 35% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17% |
| Édouard Philippe | 15% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8% |
| Éric Zemmour | 4% |
| Marine Tondelier | 3% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2% |
| Fabien Roussel | 2% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1% |
Other scenarios, each with its own average
| Scenario | Top five |
|---|---|
| with Attal, Glucksmann | Le Pen 36, Mélenchon 17, Glucksmann 15, Attal 11, Retailleau 9 |
| with Attal, Glucksmann, Philippe | Le Pen 35, Mélenchon 16, Glucksmann 13, Philippe 12, Retailleau 7 |
| with Lisnard, Glucksmann, Philippe | Le Pen 33, Mélenchon 17, Philippe 15, Glucksmann 13, Lisnard 7 |
Scenarios tested by few polls are left out of the average.
Run-off: the head-to-heads tested
In the tested run-offs, the polling average puts Le Pen ahead of every opponent tested.
| Head-to-head | Average |
|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen × Édouard Philippe | 55 × 45 |
| Marine Le Pen × Raphaël Glucksmann | 56 × 44 |
| Marine Le Pen × Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 68 × 32 |
Capivote's methodology is in a test phase for this type of election and, this far from the vote, does not publish a probability of winning. Marine Le Pen's candidacy depends on the ruling of the Cour de cassation on her appeal, and the official list of candidates will only be known after 12 March 2027. In 2022 the final polls overstated Le Pen in the run-off and understated Mélenchon in the first round; the record serves as a warning and is not applied as a correction.
Model under test. Averages of polls with a technical notice filed with the Commission des sondages; polls commissioned by parties are excluded.
Likely candidates: Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement national, confirmed); Édouard Philippe (Horizons, confirmed); Gabriel Attal (Renaissance, confirmed); Bruno Retailleau (Les Républicains, confirmed); David Lisnard (Nouvelle Énergie, confirmed); Xavier Bertrand (Les Républicains, confirmed); Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France insoumise, confirmed); Raphaël Glucksmann (Place publique, confirmed); other names floated: 17
Government approval
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Who | Approve | Disapprove | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elabe | 04/11/26 | 1,004 online | Emmanuel Macron Faites-vous confiance ou pas confiance au Président de la République, Emmanuel MACRON,… | 13.0% | 82.0% | -4.0 vs 30/09/26 |
| Elabe | 04/11/26 | 1,004 online | Sébastien Lecornu Faites-vous confiance ou pas confiance au Premier ministre, Sébastien Lecornu, pour… | 17.0% | 73.0% | -2.0 vs 30/09/26 |
| CSA | 21/10/26 | 1,011 online | Emmanuel Macron Êtes-vous satisfait de l'action d'Emmanuel Macron comme Président de la République ? | 16.7% | 82.6% | -6.0 vs 23/09/26 |
| CSA | 21/10/26 | 1,011 online | Sébastien Lecornu Êtes-vous satisfait de l'action de Sébastien Lecornu comme Premier Ministre ? | 21.6% | 77.5% | -5.5 vs 23/09/26 |
| Ipsos | 08/10/26 | 1,000 online | Emmanuel Macron Quel jugement portez-vous sur l'action d'Emmanuel Macron en tant que président de la… | 15.0% | 82.0% | -1.0 vs 10/09/26 |
| Ipsos | 08/10/26 | 1,000 online | Sébastien Lecornu Quel jugement portez-vous sur l'action de Sébastien Lecornu en tant que Premier ministre ? | 22.0% | 69.0% | +2.0 vs 10/09/26 |
| YouGov | 01/10/26 | 1,007 online | Emmanuel Macron Quel jugement portez-vous sur l'action d'Emmanuel Macron comme Président de la République… | 19.0% | 77.0% | -1.0 vs 03/09/26 |
| YouGov | 01/10/26 | 1,007 online | Sébastien Lecornu Quel jugement portez-vous sur l'action de Sébastien Lecornu comme Premier Ministre ? | 21.0% | 65.0% | -4.0 vs 03/09/26 |
Vote polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Question | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ifop | 29/10/26 | First round | Marine Le Pen 35.0% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18.0% · Raphaël Glucksmann 10.0% · Édouard Philippe 9.5% · David Lisnard 7.0% · Gabriel Attal 5.0% · Éric Zemmour 4.5% · Bruno Retailleau 4.0% |
| OpinionWay | 22/10/26 | First round | Marine Le Pen 36.0% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 16.0% · Raphaël Glucksmann 13.0% · Édouard Philippe 12.0% · Bruno Retailleau 6.0% · David Lisnard 6.0% · Gabriel Attal 4.0% · Éric Zemmour 4.0% |
| Ipsos | 22/10/26 | First round | Marine Le Pen 33.5% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 17.0% · Raphaël Glucksmann 13.0% · Édouard Philippe 13.0% · Bruno Retailleau 7.5% · Éric Zemmour 4.5% · Gabriel Attal 4.0% · Marine Tondelier 3.5% |
| Cluster17 | 22/10/26 | First round | Marine Le Pen 30.5% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 19.5% · Édouard Philippe 17.0% · David Lisnard 8.0% · Bruno Retailleau 7.0% · François Hollande 6.5% · Éric Zemmour 3.5% · Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 3.0% |
| Harris Interactive | 21/10/26 | First round | Marine Le Pen 33.0% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 17.0% · Édouard Philippe 15.0% · Raphaël Glucksmann 12.0% · David Lisnard 7.0% · Éric Zemmour 5.0% · Bruno Retailleau 4.0% · Fabien Roussel 2.0% |
| Elabe | 16/10/26 | First round | Marine Le Pen 32.5% · Édouard Philippe 16.5% · Raphaël Glucksmann 15.5% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 15.0% · Bruno Retailleau 7.0% · Éric Zemmour 3.5% · Marine Tondelier 3.0% · Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.5% |
| YouGov | 15/10/26 | First round | Marine Le Pen 36.0% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 15.0% · Raphaël Glucksmann 12.0% · Édouard Philippe 10.0% · Bruno Retailleau 6.0% · Gabriel Attal 6.0% · Marine Tondelier 6.0% · Éric Zemmour 3.0% |
| OpinionWay | 22/10/26 | Runoff | Marine Le Pen 69.0% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 31.0% Marine Le Pen 56.0% · Édouard Philippe 44.0% Marine Le Pen 56.0% · Raphaël Glucksmann 44.0% |
| Harris Interactive | 21/10/26 | Runoff | Marine Le Pen 70.0% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 30.0% Marine Le Pen 59.0% · Raphaël Glucksmann 41.0% Marine Le Pen 57.0% · Édouard Philippe 43.0% |
| Ifop | 19/10/26 | Runoff | Marine Le Pen 68.0% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 32.0% Marine Le Pen 59.0% · François Hollande 41.0% Marine Le Pen 58.0% · Gabriel Attal 42.0% Marine Le Pen 57.0% · Raphaël Glucksmann 43.0% Marine Le Pen 56.0% · Édouard Philippe 44.0% |
| Elabe | 16/10/26 | Runoff | Marine Le Pen 69.0% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 31.0% Marine Le Pen 53.5% · Raphaël Glucksmann 46.5% Marine Le Pen 52.5% · Édouard Philippe 47.5% |
| YouGov | 15/10/26 | Runoff | Marine Le Pen 68.0% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 32.0% Édouard Philippe 66.0% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 34.0% Marine Le Pen 55.0% · Raphaël Glucksmann 45.0% Marine Le Pen 55.0% · François Hollande 45.0% Marine Le Pen 55.0% · Gabriel Attal 45.0% Marine Le Pen 52.0% · Édouard Philippe 48.0% |
First round: for each pollster, the fullest scenario in its latest wave (pollsters test several candidate line-ups). Runoff: every head-to-head tested in the latest wave. Left out: the Toluna Harris Interactive poll commissioned by La France insoumise (fieldwork Oct 16-19).
Only recent polls with published fieldwork and sample, from independent pollsters, are included; for each pollster the latest wave counts, and the previous one shows the trend. Polls commissioned by a party, campaign or government, or run by a pollster whose owner or director is tied to a party, are excluded.
Sources: each poll links to the original publication (the pollster's name is the link). Past results: each country's electoral body, or press reproducing the official tally. Compiled on Nov 8, 2026.