Argentina 2027: what the polls say a year out
Javier Milei can run for re-election. A candidate wins outright with over 45% of the valid vote, or 40% with a ten-point lead; otherwise there is a runoff. The PASO open primaries are still in the law, but the reform scrapping them is stalled in the Senate. In Peronism, Axel Kicillof has launched his bid; Cristina Kirchner is barred since the Supreme Court upheld her conviction in 2025.
A year out, a poll measures voters' mood and how well known each name is. The average published on this page is a snapshot of the moment, and the page carries no chance of winning. Each poll is shown with its dates and method.
Presidential polling average (first round) (model under test)
Argentina elects its president, vice president, half of the Chamber of Deputies and one third of the Senate on 24 October 2027. Capivote publishes the average of candidate voting-intention polls, on the base of valid affirmative votes used by the Argentine Constitution. Cut-off date: 11/11/26.
Javier Milei leads with 39.6%, followed by Axel Kicillof with 32.8% and Myriam Bregman with 9.8%. The gap between the top two is 6.8 points. Candidacies are still hypothetical, and pollsters test different line-ups for Peronism and for the centre-right; the other names do not appear in every poll and get no average.
| Candidate | Average |
|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 39.6% |
| Axel Kicillof | 32.8% |
| Myriam Bregman | 9.8% |
The Capivote methodology measures polling error in the final stretch of an election. Almost a year before the vote that error has no measure, and there are not yet enough run-off polls. The page therefore shows the average and no probabilities. Probabilities will return once there is a basis for them.
There are not enough polls for the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate, and Capivote does not publish a seat projection. Model under test: polls enter only with a published technical sheet, and polls linked to a party or candidate are excluded.
Likely candidates: Axel Kicillof (Peronismo, confirmed); Sergio Uñac (Peronismo, confirmed); Juan Grabois (Patria Grande, confirmed); Esteban Bullrich (PRO, confirmed); Hernán Lacunza (independente, confirmed); Santiago ou Manuel Passaglia (Hechos, confirmed); Federico González (independente, confirmed); Javier Milei (La Libertad Avanza, likely); other names floated: 11
Government approval
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Approve | Disapprove | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zentrix Consultora | 30/10/26 | 1,278 online | 36.2% | 55.5% | – |
| Universidad de San Andrés: ESPOP | 13/10/26 | 1,000 online | 36.0% | 60.0% | +1.0 vs 09/09/26 |
| AtlasIntel | 07/10/26 | 2,067 online | 38.5% | 57.2% | +0.4 vs 03/09/26 |
| Giacobbe & Asociados | 05/10/26 | 2,500 method not given | 36.0% | 56.0% | – |
| Equipo Mide | 25/09/26 | 2,114 method not given | 38.0% | 59.0% | – |
| OPSA: Observatorio de Psicología Social Aplicada | 23/09/26 | 3,031 online | 43.0% | 57.0% | – |
| Zuban Córdoba y Asociados | 19/09/26 | 2,000 online | 35.3% | 63.6% | – |
| D'Alessio IROL / Berensztein | 30/08/26 | 800 online | 40.0% | 58.0% | – |
| Synopsis Consultores | 18/08/26 | 1,224 method not given | 33.9% | 55.3% | – |
Government Confidence Index (Torcuato Di Tella University, 0 to 5 scale): 1.95 in 10/2026, against 2.47 in 11/2025.
Vote polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Question | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| PoliTech | 04/11/26 | Prompted vote | Javier Milei 32.0% · Axel Kicillof 30.7% · Patricia Bullrich 9.7% · Myriam Bregman 9.6% · Sergio Massa 7.4% · Otro candidato 5.6% · DK/spoilt 1.0% |
| RDT Consultores | 28/10/26 | Prompted vote | Javier Milei 28.9% · Axel Kicillof 19.8% · En blanco o ninguno 13.9% · Sergio Massa 11.4% · Myriam Bregman 7.5% · Victoria Villarruel 6.4% · DK/spoilt 12.1% |
| Zuban Córdoba y Asociados | 19/10/26 | Vote by political camp | Peronismo 36.6% · La Libertad Avanza 31.5% · PRO 5.6% · Frente de Izquierda 5.5% · DK/spoilt 13.0% |
| Universidad de San Andrés - LOOP | 13/10/26 | Vote by political camp | La Libertad Avanza 26.0% · Peronismo 24.0% · Voto en blanco 5.0% · Frente de Izquierda 4.0% · No iría a votar 4.0% · PRO 3.0% · DK/spoilt 26.0% |
| Proyección Consultores | 13/10/26 | Prompted vote | Javier Milei 37.0% · Axel Kicillof 31.6% · Voto en blanco o impugnado 10.0% · Myriam Bregman 7.4% · Maximiliano Pullaro 4.3% · DK/spoilt 9.7% |
| QSocial | 28/09/26 | Prompted vote | Javier Milei 31.0% · Axel Kicillof 31.0% · En blanco 9.0% · Myriam Bregman 7.0% · Juan Schiaretti 6.0% · DK/spoilt 16.0% |
| Trends | 17/09/26 | Vote by political camp | La Libertad Avanza 35.0% · Peronismo 33.0% · Izquierda 8.0% · PRO 7.0% · Otro espacio 4.0% · Voto en blanco o nulo 4.0% · DK/spoilt 7.0% |
| Synopsis Consultores | 15/09/26 | Vote by political camp | La Libertad Avanza 33.6% · Peronismo 32.7% |
| Opinaia | 09/09/26 | Vote by political camp | La Libertad Avanza 33.0% · Peronismo 29.0% · PRO 7.0% · Frente de Izquierda 6.0% · Provincias Unidas 5.0% · DK/spoilt 19.0% |
| Explanans | 09/09/26 | Prompted vote | Milei 38.5% · Axel Kicillof 24.0% |
| Consultora Tendencias | 29/08/26 | Prompted vote | Axel Kicillof 33.7% · Javier Milei 32.4% · Myriam Bregman 10.2% |
Excluded for party ties: CELAG, Analogías, Inteligencia Analítica, Federico González (its owner is a candidate), Rubikon, Opina Argentina, Circuitos and Delfos.
Only recent polls with published fieldwork and sample, from independent pollsters, are included; for each pollster the latest wave counts, and the previous one shows the trend. Polls commissioned by a party, campaign or government, or run by a pollster whose owner or director is tied to a party, are excluded.
Sources: each poll links to the original publication (the pollster's name is the link). Past results: each country's electoral body, or press reproducing the official tally. Compiled on Nov 8, 2026.