Germany · Bundestag
The next German federal election is expected in spring 2029, according to the Bundeswahlleiterin, the federal election authority. No early election has been called.
Capivote publishes the average of voting-intention polls from institutes whose source has been verified. With the election more than two years away, the figure is a snapshot of stated opinion today, not a forecast of the result. The methodology applied to Germany is being tested.
Polling average (second vote) (model under test)
As of 11/11/26, the AfD stands at 27.0%, the CDU/CSU at 20.8%, the Greens at 15.0%, the SPD at 13.6%, Die Linke at 10.8% and the FDP at 3.8%.
| Party | Average |
|---|---|
| AfD | 27.0% |
| CDU/CSU | 20.8% |
| Greens | 15.0% |
| SPD | 13.6% |
| Die Linke | 10.8% |
| FDP | 3.8% |
The Bundestag has 630 seats. Since the 2023 reform the second vote sets the allocation, and a constituency winner takes the seat only if the party's second votes cover it. A party enters the allocation with 5% of second votes or three constituencies. Capivote does not yet project seats under this rule, nor does it publish a chance of a majority.
Sources: polls published by the institutes themselves or by the outlets that commission them, checked at the original source; electoral system in the Bundeswahlgesetz (gesetze-im-internet.de); calendar from the Bundeswahlleiterin.